{"id":5261,"date":"2022-08-24T17:04:35","date_gmt":"2022-08-24T17:04:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pan.thatscommunication.de\/intelligence-services-predict-putins-downfall\/"},"modified":"2026-10-13T08:27:52","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T08:27:52","slug":"intelligence-services-predict-putins-downfall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pan.thatscommunication.de\/en\/intelligence-services-predict-putins-downfall\/","title":{"rendered":"Intelligence Services Predict Putin’s Downfall"},"content":{"rendered":"

How a mercenary group, named after Richard Wagner and deployed in Ukraine and Libya, is attempting to influence the Italian parliamentary elections. What the EU could do to elegantly defuse this bizarre situation. How an oligarch, who started as Putin’s chef, became rich and \u2013 together with a Hitler admirer \u2013 commands Putin’s shadow army. A Russian victory would be catastrophic for European security and the entire world. Neutrality is as safe as Russian Roulette. By Ludwig Bayer <\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Fighters from the Wagner group carved swastikas into the dead bodies of fallen Ukrainians with military knives. Former staff officer Dmitri Utkin, who commands the Wagner group at the front, also engaged in desecrating corpses. He earns the respect of his brutalised subordinates through harshness. Utkin openly admires Hitler and his favourite composer, Richard Wagner. The latter created heroic music. The overture to his opera \u201cRienzi\u201d was played at party congresses of the two largest totalitarian parties of the first half of the 20th century: Hitler’s NSDAP and Stalin’s CPSU. <\/span><\/p>\n

This subtly symbolises the commonalities of totalitarianisms \u2013 and it underlines the old insight: extremes meet. Richard Wagner, who cannot defend himself, has become the namesake in today’s Russia for a dehumanising, SS-like special unit of totalitarian Putinism. As Handelsblatt ironically writes, \u201cthe head of the Wagner mercenary group, Lieutenant Colonel Dmitri Utkin, has succeeded in being promoted to ‘General’; more precisely, to General Director of Concord Management & Consulting GmbH. The company operates a number of restaurants and belongs to Yevgeny Prigozhin, an oligarch close to Putin. Utkin is one of the most dubious figures in the so-called hybrid warfare that Russia has been employing for several years.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

The Slavic Corps and the Wagner Battle Group<\/span><\/h5>\n

Born in 1970, the professional soldier was commander of a special unit within a brigade of the GRU army intelligence in the western Russian region of Pskov until 2013, before becoming a reserve officer. As such, he joined a seemingly private Russian security company that established a \u201cSlavic Corps\u201d in Syria, supporting the army of President Bashar al-Assad. A short time later, Dmitri Utkin \u2013 call sign \u201cWagner\u201d \u2013 was already commander of his own unit, named the Wagner Group after his military alias. Handelsblatt knows how it is connected to the army: \u201cWagner fighters trained in close formation with Russian soldiers and special units and were active in Syria, Eastern Ukraine, and Crimea.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

Monthly Salaries of up to $4,300 Attract Recruits<\/span><\/h5>\n

Since the start of Putin’s major war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, a few laws were quickly changed, and the Wagner Group has since become an international mercenary force that pays monthly salaries of up to 4,300 US dollars, depending on the specifics of its operations. According to Putin, the Russian state has \u201cnothing to do\u201d with this killing machine initiated by the head of state. In practice, this means that Wagner fighters unscrupulously disregard the rights of Ukrainians and other peoples, as they feel bound by no international law. However, Wagner soldiers are themselves without rights and cannot make claims against the Russian state they serve if they are wounded; indeed, they are not even statistically recorded if they die. This is how Putin cleans up his figures. <\/span><\/p>\n

Currently, the most important task of the Wagner brutes is to plug the gaps that Putin’s war is tearing in Putin’s ranks in Donbas. Observers note that the Wagner Group is playing an increasingly strong role at the front. According to British intelligence findings from 29.07.2022, Russia has transferred responsibility for some front sectors in Eastern Ukraine to the Wagner mercenary group. This could be a sign that the Russian military is facing a significant shortage of its own infantry, the Ministry of Defence in London announced. This step marks a significant change from the Wagner group’s previous deployments. However, the Wagner forces are most likely insufficient to effect a change in the course of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, especially as Ukrainian forces are intensifying their counter-offensive in the south and tying up Russian troops there. <\/span><\/p>\n

Is Russia Failing in the War Against Ukraine?<\/span><\/h5>\n

According to British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, Russia is failing in its war against Ukraine. Therefore, Putin might try to change his strategy again. \u201cThe Russians are failing on the ground in many areas at the moment,\u201d Wallace told Sky News. As a last hope, the Moscow leadership is now clearly relying on the increased front-line deployment of the \u201cRussian Foreign Legion Wagner\u201d under the fanatical Hitlerite and Putinist Dmitri Utkin. <\/span><\/p>\n

Can Ukraine Recapture Territories?<\/span><\/h5>\n

On 30.07.2022, prominent American sources confirmed the British assessment. Former head of US foreign intelligence, David Petraeus, believes Ukraine’s chances of victory in the war against Russia are high. It seems \u201cincreasingly likely that Ukrainian forces could recapture much, if not all, of the territory taken by Russian forces in recent months,\u201d Petraeus stated. He considers a Russian military success \u201cvery unlikely,\u201d as he explained in interviews. <\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

A prerequisite for Ukrainian success, however, is that NATO \u201cand other Western states\u201d continue to \u201cprovide resources at the current pace,\u201d Petraeus emphasised. In this case, according to the general, Ukrainian forces would be able to \u201cstop further Russian advances\u201d and begin to \u201crecapture the territories conquered by the Russians since 24 February.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

Question of European Security<\/span><\/h5>\n

Petraeus exudes confidence: by now, the heads of state and government of NATO member states and other Western nations have recognised that a Russian victory \u201cwould be catastrophic for European security.\u201d They would therefore \u201ctake the necessary measures to ensure that Russia cannot succeed.\u201d Wagner mercenaries are now supposed to save the Putinist system on the hottest front line in Eastern Ukraine. Putin’s regular army is approaching its limit. Moscow is therefore transferring more and more military powers to Wagner mercenaries, says Petraeus. He is one of the most prominent military figures in the USA. His voice is heard worldwide. He was Commander-in-Chief of US forces in Iraq, NATO forces in Afghanistan, and head of US Central Command and the CIA foreign intelligence service. <\/span><\/p>\n

Lack of Western High Technology<\/span><\/h5>\n

Additionally: CNN quoted Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, who attended a government briefing in Washington. In the war of aggression against Ukraine (snapshot from 28.07.2022), more than 75,000 fighters on the Russian side have already been killed or seriously wounded, according to US estimates. This drain, which weakens Russia, is \u201cenormous,\u201d the parliamentarian said. Her information aligns with the British government’s assessments, which suggest that Putin is gradually running out of steam. Russia’s economy is shrinking by ten percent annually, with the absence of Western high technology having direct military consequences. <\/span><\/p>\n

What Are the Russians Dying For?<\/span><\/h5>\n

Added to this is the decline in morale, the dwindling motivation among ethnic Russians who do not know what they are dying for. They are increasingly unable to identify with Putin’s war aims, especially since (also at the end of July) Foreign Minister Lavrov candidly admitted that Russia wanted to \u201chelp\u201d the Ukrainian people remove their government. In plain language, this means that the Russian dictator, who only remained in power thanks to electoral fraud, wants to destroy the democratically elected, freedom-oriented Ukrainian government; in its place, a Russian satellite creature of the Walter Ulbricht, Ramzan Kadyrov, or Alexander Lukashenko type is to step in. <\/span><\/p>\n

Russian Freedom Fighters<\/span><\/h5>\n

Ukrainians are now being supported by Russian freedom fighters who want a \u201cRussia without Putin.\u201d They call themselves the Russian Freedom Legion and fight not only with military weapons against Putin’s despotism. With their compelling political demands, they are also driving new forms of psychological warfare on the Ukrainian side: \u201cAgainst Putin’s war! For a free Russia!\u201d \u2013 Here, too, a historical parallel can be found, namely to the American War of Independence against British colonialism. This \u201cWar of Independence\u201d was simultaneously a successful \u201cnation-building\u201d and a fascinating struggle for freedom that captivated even newly immigrated Englishmen like Thomas Paine so much that they passionately advocated for the cause of liberty. To stick with the example of Thomas Paine: with \u201cCommon Sense,\u201d he wrote the most widely distributed text of his time, which inspired, formulated goals, and made it clear to the whole world that with the founding of the USA, a new chapter in world history had begun: the implementation of the Enlightenment’s ideals of freedom with inalienable fundamental rights (\u201cgiven by God\u201d), the individual’s right to self-determination, and every nation’s right to freedom. The Ukrainians are currently leading this \u2013 also intellectual \u2013 struggle on the front line. On behalf of us all. <\/span><\/p>\n

Shoigu Relies on EU Disunity<\/span><\/h5>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Buddhists say: everything is connected to everything else. The Kremlin, whose army chief Shoigu comes from a Tuvan-Buddhist background, is counting on disunity within the EU. He hopes to assist this with special operations by the Wagner group \u2013 exploiting Italy’s weakness. On Putin’s political-ideological front abroad: the Kremlin wants to influence the new elections in Italy through the issue of immigration: Libyan militias around the powerful rebel general Khalifa Haftar are currently driving more and more migrants and refugees on boats to Italy. They are supported by Wagner group mercenaries, as Italian intelligence services report. Russia wants to put pressure on Europe and steer the parliamentary elections in Italy. <\/span><\/p>\n

Refugees and the Elections in Italy<\/span><\/h5>\n

The Roman daily newspaper La Repubblica reported on the boat refugees in Italy on 29.07.2022, explicitly referring to Italian intelligence services. Russia assumes that a sharp increase in refugee movements would favour a victory for the xenophobic centre-right parties in the parliamentary elections on 25 September. These parties \u2013 the further right they are, the clearer it becomes \u2013 are pro-Putin. This year, around 40,000 people have already arrived in Italy after crossing the Mediterranean. In July 2022, the number of illegal immigrants increased significantly further. More than a thousand refugees waited on board two NGO ships for a landing port. There is no shortage of other ships. Most come from Libya. The North African chaotic country is \u201clike a cannon aimed at Italy. Immigration, with regard to the Italian election campaign, is the most powerful weapon for those who want to influence the parliamentary elections in September,\u201d a so-called \u201cintelligence source\u201d in Rome told La Repubblica. <\/span><\/p>\n

Good Connections from Rome to Moscow<\/span><\/h5>\n

Currently, the pro-fascist and anti-migrant party \u201cFratelli d’Italia\u201d is considered the favourite \u2013 in alliance with the Lega, led by former Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, and the right-wing conservative Forza Italia of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. Italian media have repeatedly reported that Moscow intends to interfere in the government crisis in Rome. The three right-wing parties are all said to maintain more or less good connections with the Kremlin \u2013 and to be critical or opposed to arms deliveries to Ukraine. And Forza Italia leader Berlusconi feels a mental connection with Putin. <\/span><\/p>\n

Relaxed Attitude Towards Fascism and Putin<\/span><\/h5>\n

The war crimes of the Russian armed forces and Putin’s Wagner shadow army \u2013 both wading in blood \u2013 leave Italian right-wing politicians unimpressed. Meloni, Salvini, and Berlusconi prefer to speak of Italy’s national interests rather than Putin’s war of aggression. If it served Italian interests, they would cooperate with Putin. A strange parallel is striking. <\/span><\/p>\n

Frontrunner Giorgia Meloni emphasises that her relationship with fascism is \u201crelaxed\u201d and she refuses to distance herself from Mussolini; just as she avoids distancing herself from Putin. \u2013 In the slipstream of the new Tsar, Dmitri Utkin has risen, who is currently trying to save Commander-in-Chief Putin with his mercenary horde in Donbas. Utkin’s relationship with National Socialism could also be described with Meloni’s words: it is \u201crelaxed.\u201d Utkin rejects any distancing from Hitler. <\/span><\/p>\n

Regarding the turbulence in Italy, which Putin is now trying to exploit for his own purposes, another parallel can be considered. Brexit was \u2013 according to the unanimous opinion of an ORF chief correspondent and a temporary Federal Chancellor \u2013 largely a consequence of the EU’s misguided migration policy. The push-back ban is not derived from international law; it is an EU norm and could therefore be changed by the EU at any time. For the majority of Britons, it was intolerable that non-British judges in Luxembourg could decide who could immigrate to the United Kingdom. The situation in Italy would be viewed similarly if Giorgia Meloni succeeded in becoming Prime Minister. In that case, she would sit down with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and make the joint decision that illegal immigrants should be taken to a third-world country before their hearing, with the possibility of submitting all desired applications there. Naturally, for the duration of the processing, the European state concerned would bear the costs of their stay (for example, in Rwanda \u2013 in accordance with Copenhagen’s legal resolution). <\/span><\/p>\n

Changes to the Push-back Ban<\/span><\/h5>\n

If Brussels and Luxembourg were then to try to abolish the national sovereignty of Italy and Denmark through immigration-friendly initiatives by taking over the immigration agenda, Prime Ministers Meloni and Frederiksen would likely refer to the British example, invoke the principle of subsidiarity, and present the European level with a choice: either legal clarification of sole national competence in immigration matters \u2013 or withdrawal from the EU.<\/span><\/p>\n

Conversely, such an escalation could easily be prevented by preventive measures. If Brussels were to quickly signal to Italian voters that the EU Commission does not want to regulate everything and that it will amend European law to suspend all provisions that restrict national competence in migration matters, the pressure would be released. Giorgia Meloni would lose her central campaign issue. And after the election, she would remain in opposition. <\/span><\/p>\n

Returning to Dmitri Utkin, who also operates at the extreme right edge of the world. New material about him has emerged. The Wagner Group was originally financed by the Russian oligarch and Putin confidant Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is considered the owner since its registration as a \u201csecurity company\u201d in the Argentine commercial register. However, the idea for its founding came from the Russian General Staff. The aim is to deploy \u201cirregular fighters\u201d for sensitive tasks to minimise public attention and the number of problems in case of failure. The fact that Prigozhin was made \u201cowner\u201d may be due to him being more in the background than other Kremlin-affiliated individuals who might have been considered for leadership. The now wealthy Prigozhin reportedly found the matter too risky, but Putin insisted. Prigozhin ultimately could not or would not defy the supreme despot. <\/span><\/p>\n

Formally, the Wagner Group was never subordinate to the Russian Ministry of Defence. However, sources report close ties in strategy and operations with the Russian military intelligence GRU. Dmitri Utkin was at a Kremlin reception when he was awarded the Order of Courage and spoke with Putin. Clearly, the Russian state is ultimately the client of this paramilitary organisation. <\/span><\/p>\n

Mercenaries Can Also Be Sacrificed<\/span><\/h5>\n

The deployment of the Wagner Group offers Russia the advantage of not having to send regular troops into the jaws of hell. Mercenaries can be \u201csacrificed\u201d if necessary. Furthermore: The New York Times quotes a military analyst who researched that the Syrian Assad government was and is willing to exchange security and combat services from the Russian ‘shooting company’ for access to their country’s natural resources like gas and oil. Again, the question remains open as to whose pockets the profits from such deals ultimately end up in. <\/span><\/p>\n

The Neue Z\u00fcrcher Zeitung referred to information from the Ukrainian domestic intelligence service, which claims to have identified up to 2,000 individuals who fought under the Wagner umbrella. The Daily Telegraph also incidentally reported on Serbian Wagner fighters. The training of Wagner mercenaries partly takes place at an army training ground near Molkino in southern Russia. A former fighter told the British broadcaster Sky News that the operational training lasts only one to two months and is professionally conducted by Russian military personnel. <\/span><\/p>\n

Georgians Are Not Accepted<\/span><\/h5>\n

With the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Wagner radically lowered its recruitment requirements (according to BBC research); previously dismissed personnel were contacted; rejected applicants from blacklists were suddenly welcome. Foreigners, with the exception of Georgians, would also be accepted. A veteran reported to the BBC that Wagner fighters expressed internal disdain: \u201cThese are no longer normal mercenaries, but a kind of penal battalion.\u201d Other reports state that the Russian Ministry of Defence took over supervision of recruitments \u2013 effectively taking over the \u201cWagner brand.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

The US Department of Defense reports that it saw \u201csome indications early on that ‘Wagnerites’ were deployed from the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.\u201d This also involved assassination plots against the Ukrainian president. The British military intelligence service, Defence Intelligence, reported in March that Wagner personnel were \u201cdeployed to fight in Ukraine.\u201d According to a report published in mid-March 2022 by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the Wagner Group was at that time considering recruiting 18,000 Syrians belonging to Syrian ruler Bashar Al-Assad’s Ba’ath Party for deployment in the war in Ukraine. According to a report from the German Federal Intelligence Service, numerous right-wing extremists and neo-Nazis are also fighting against Ukraine in Putin’s wake. This is not surprising, as it is a global struggle of despotisms against freedom. <\/span><\/p>\n

Radio intercepts, obtained by the Federal Intelligence Service in connection with the Bucha massacre, indicate that Wagner Group mercenaries were also involved in these murders and that the executions, rapes, and tortures of civilians were deliberately ordered by the Moscow military leadership to instill fear in the local population and break their will to resist.<\/span><\/p>\n

Investigations Come to Nothing<\/span><\/h5>\n

Journalistic curiosity sometimes ends fatally. In April 2018, Russian investigative journalist Maxim Borodin died in a so-called \u201cunfortunate incident\u201d: the publicist, who was researching the activities of the Wagner mercenary group in Syria, had fallen from his fifth-floor balcony in Yekaterinburg. In November 2019, journalists identified a Wagner mercenary in an online video, seen torturing a Syrian to death with comrades at a petrol station near Homs in 2017. The Syrian had presumably deserted earlier. In 2021, relatives filed a complaint in Russia for murder and torture. As in all such cases, the investigations will come to nothing. Murderers in Putin’s orbit remain unpunished. <\/span><\/p>\n

The Wagner organisation has been on the US sanctions list since 2017. In December 2021, the EU also placed the Wagner Group on a sanctions list \u201cdue to serious human rights violations.\u201d As a result, assets held in the EU were frozen, a travel ban was imposed on affected individuals, and a business ban within the EU was issued. <\/span><\/p>\n

New Book on the Wagner Group<\/span><\/h5>\n

What kind of business are Wagner personnel involved in? A former contract killer now offers insights into their structures in a new book. For years, mercenary Marat Gabidullin killed in the service of the Wagner group in Syria and Ukraine. But the bloody combat missions on behalf of Russia’s powerful, within the framework of the supposedly private military and security company Wagner, made him reflect. As the first fighter of the Kremlin chief’s shadow army, he reveals some background in the recently published book \u201cWagner. Putin’s Secret Army\u201d (Econ Verlag): \u201cSaving Bashar al-Assad’s regime allowed Russia to strongly recommend itself worldwide as a protector and saviour of criminals of all kinds,\u201d Gabidullin writes. Wagner mercenaries play a role in Sudan, Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic. This often involves natural resources and money. <\/span><\/p>\n

We learn: \u201cBy sending mercenaries, the state saves on pension entitlements and salaries it would have to pay to regular army soldiers. And it also makes it possible to make deaths disappear.\u201d In the case of \u201cspecial operations\u201d that violate international law, this expands the government’s room for manoeuvre. Yevgeny Prigozhin is considered the direct liaison between the Wagner Group and the Kremlin. The 62-year-old, who is wanted by the USA, hails from St. Petersburg. Yevgeny Prigozhin often hosted Putin, who once worked in the St. Petersburg city administration, in his restaurant \u2013 which is why he has since been nicknamed \u201cPutin’s Chef.\u201d He owns many companies, operates several luxury restaurants, and also supplies the Russian army and, of course, his Wagner fighters with nourishing food. <\/span><\/p>\n

Which Country Will Putin Attack Next?<\/span><\/h5>\n

Even more interesting than this oligarch’s life appears a subordinate clause in the information about the recruitment of new personnel for Putin’s mercenary group. Combatants from all countries and peoples of the world are welcome in the Wagner Group \u2013 with one exception: Georgians are not accepted! Why? Before answering, two questions arise: Which country would Putin attack next if the imperial power of colonial Russia were great enough to crush Ukraine? Conversely: Who lives without danger? Analogous to the collective term Benelux, Switzerland, Austria, and Liechtenstein could collectively be called Sch\u00f6sli. Sch\u00f6sli is neutral. That it is considered safe has nothing to do with neutrality. Sch\u00f6sli’s security derives from the fact that this neutral luxury trio in the centre of Europe is exclusively surrounded by countries that belong to both the EU and NATO. <\/span><\/p>\n

Georgia is on Putin’s Menu<\/span><\/h5>\n

Georgia does not enjoy such security comfort. It belongs to no alliance. It is neutral. It has no protective shield. And parts of its territory are already occupied by Russian troops (Abkhazia and South Ossetia). Putin will seize the rest as soon as possible. Since he wants to avoid Georgian Wagner mercenaries opening fire on all accessible non-Georgians during this \u201cspecial operation,\u201d he issues the prophylactic order now \u2013 in the master-race pose of a second \u201cgreatest commander of all time\u201d \u2013 not to recruit Georgians into his shadow army. For Georgia is on Putin’s menu \u2013 and he does not want to be disturbed while eating. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

How a mercenary group, named after Richard Wagner and deployed in Ukraine and Libya, is attempting to influence the Italian parliamentary elections. 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