{"id":5820,"date":"2017-10-17T19:46:53","date_gmt":"2017-10-17T19:46:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pan.thatscommunication.de\/five-winners-one-loser\/"},"modified":"2026-10-19T21:47:21","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T21:47:21","slug":"five-winners-one-loser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pan.thatscommunication.de\/en\/five-winners-one-loser\/","title":{"rendered":"Five winners, one loser"},"content":{"rendered":"

It has become part of the often embarrassing election day ritual for parties to fundamentally declare themselves the winners of the election. A commentary by Patrick Minar<\/a>. <\/em>
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Smallest increases in votes, a smaller minus than expected, mandates held, polls as a starting point, etc. \u2013 no argument is too stupid. This election is different: five parties can be absolutely satisfied with the result, quite rightly so; only for one was the debacle so obvious that even the most cunning spin doctor could probably think of nothing more. <\/p>\n

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The three “small” ones: From jubilation to disappointment<\/strong><\/p>\n

At the bottom, the story is quickly told. The Greens have had to realise that they are by no means so structurally anchored in society that they would be forgiven for treating the best horse in the stable poorly. Sure-footed and miles away from the issues important to voters, they have brought themselves to the brink of their existence (at the time of writing this commentary, the counting of postal votes was still missing) and will \u2013 regardless of whether they ultimately make it into parliament or not \u2013 have to reinvent themselves to an extent<\/a>, finding a raison d’\u00eatre that goes beyond climate lamentation and anti-FP\u00d6 rhetoric. <\/p>\n

\"The

The Neos remained stable at a low level, but could become the tip of the scales.
(cc-by-sa Nicole Heiling)<\/p><\/div>\n

The old warhorse Peter Pilz, on the other hand, has, as so often in his political career, proven correct political instinct and correctly assessed his own standing, that of the topics associated with him, and that of his former party colleagues. He seized the opportunity and succeeded with a left-wing populist party \u2013 the idea of “certainly not founding a new party” was quickly abandoned, at the latest after taking a closer look at the Party Financing Act.<\/p>\n

The great fear of the Neos was being crushed by the lost-vote argument in the escalation of the leadership question between the three major parties. Through a well-conceived, largely error-free election campaign, albeit with illegible poster slogans, they succeeded in never entering this disastrous debate, but instead positioned themselves throughout most of the campaign as a small but stable force for substantive renewal in the National Council. <\/p>\n

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Kurz campaign: Strategically well executed<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"For

For \u00d6VP leader Sebastian Kurz, his substantive consistency above all paid off in the election outcome.
By Dragan Tatic, CC BY 2.0, https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/w\/index.php?curid=61063684<\/p><\/div>\n

Things got heated at times with the domestic political triumvirate of the \u00d6VP, SP\u00d6, and FP\u00d6. The \u00d6VP, which mutated from black to turquoise under new chairman Sebastian Kurz, introduced a new form of election campaign staging to the domestic stage under the professional leadership of campaign expert Philipp Maderthaner<\/a>, outshining substantive weaknesses here and there. <\/p>\n

However, a key success factor was the consistent “stay on the message”, which earned Kurz criticism in the Twitterati bubble of political junkies but was precisely tuned to the needs of the voters. Post-election analyses show this very clearly. Collateral damage, caused by the SP\u00d6’s successful expansion of the Silberstein affair to the \u00d6VP, slightly clouded the campaign finish, but did not change the great success of the \u00d6VP. <\/p>\n

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SP\u00d6: Stable after all despite turbulence<\/strong><\/p>\n

The SP\u00d6 delivered the most exciting result. With around 27 per cent of the vote, party leader Kern naturally confirms the historically worst result for the Social Democrats; however, given the disastrous starting position, respect must be paid. An election campaign can hardly run worse than was the case this time. <\/p>\n

A respected campaign professional threw in the towel early, as he apparently smelled a rat; brawling employees, internal party wing fights, and finally the fatal leaks with unflattering internal psychograms of the Federal Chancellor and about the activities of the internationally well-known consultant Tal Silberstein, who organised Facebook pages of questionable taste and other low blows for the SP\u00d6.<\/p>\n

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Blame it on the Weatherman<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"The

The SP\u00d6 under Christian Kern remained surprisingly stable. The reasons for this, however, were not necessarily their own merits.
\u00a9 SP\u00d6\/Zach-Kiesling<\/p><\/div>\n

The subsequent communication strategy of the SP\u00d6 was remarkable, according to which no one was actually responsible, no one knew anything, everyone distanced themselves, but a lot of money was still paid. What remained was a party employee who apparently acted on his own initiative, without coordination with the federal managing director and campaign manager, or even the party leader. A remarkable life of its own… <\/p>\n

It is fascinating that this spin worked and the SP\u00d6 actually succeeded in projecting an image where everyone was equally shabby and everyone was equally involved. The question arises: what does a party like the SP\u00d6 have to do to be truly punished by the voter? One does not know. What is certain is that the much-maligned Vienna SP\u00d6 stood like a rock, ensuring a more than respectable result for the battered federal SP\u00d6. Internally, the result represents a strengthening of the anti-FP\u00d6 faction under the leadership of Vienna Mayor Michael H\u00e4upl; those seeking links with the Blues, such as Burgenland’s Hans Niessl, were weakened. <\/p>\n

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Freedom Party composure<\/strong><\/p>\n

The election campaign ran relatively peacefully for the FP\u00d6, after the role of the “bad boy”, usually left to them, was taken over by the SP\u00d6.<\/p>\n

\"Kern,

Kern, Pilz, Strache: Three unequal opponents. Will they remain so?
By SP\u00d6 Presse und Kommunikation – CC BY-SA 2.0, https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/w\/index.php?curid=63411766<\/p><\/div>\n

Under the leadership of the longest-serving party leader Heinz-Christian Strache, the turbulence between the SP\u00d6 and \u00d6VP came to their aid, as they had been under substantive pressure until then because the Kurz-\u00d6VP cheekily but consistently snatched their core topics of asylum, integration, and immigration from their plate and presented them to voters in much more measured language. <\/p>\n

The result is only just below the historic high of 1999, placing the third camp in the position of kingmaker. A fascinating detail is the realisation that, after the presidential election, the FP\u00d6 is now faltering in Vienna for the second time and is not getting the necessary results onto the streets there to be even further ahead nationwide. <\/p>\n

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Coalition poker<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Result_State\"

Results by federal state. Source: BMI \/ wahl17.bmi.gv.at<\/p><\/div>\n

Which finally brings us to the question of what happens next. All signs point to a Black-Blue coalition. However, a hard-nosed negotiation poker is to be expected, where it remains to be seen who will back down further. The FP\u00d6 has the strategically optimal starting position in its luggage: a strong result itself, plus two options due to third place, both of which are so strong that they can enter negotiations with sufficient self-confidence. For Christian Kern, Blue-Red is the only constellation to remain Chancellor and is simultaneously of the greatest importance for the power-conscious SP\u00d6, as it is otherwise extremely weakly positioned in most states and levels. <\/p>\n

The \u00d6VP, on the other hand, is also under considerable pressure, because Sebastian Kurz was not made chairman to be leader of the opposition, and a new edition of Black-Red under different conditions would probably not correspond to the will of Kurz supporters; moreover, such a new edition is probably not very realistic given the low blows recently exchanged between the two parties.<\/p>\n

What is currently certain is a historic election in which the SP\u00d6 was voted out as the Chancellor’s party, the \u00d6VP achieved first place \u2013 a historically rare result \u2013 the Greens have crumbled and must fight for existence, and with the Liste Pilz, a new actor is on the field.<\/p>\n

It remains interesting.<\/p>\n

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Patrick Minar<\/a> is a partner at the Vienna communications agency Schneider | Minar | Jenewein Consulting<\/a>. Twitter: @LitigationTweet<\/a> <\/em><\/p>\n

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Paneuropa post-election analysis.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Part 1: \u201cThe next move?\u201d by Lukas Leitner.<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/pan.thatscommunication.de\/der-naechste-zug-versuch-einer-nachwahlprognose\/<\/p>\n

Part 2: \u201cLeft-wing deficits as fathers of the right-wing shift\u201d by Wilhelm Ortmayr.<\/a><\/p>\n

Linke Defizite als V\u00e4ter des Rechtsrucks<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n