The Colossus Totters
Russia could become a “second Canada” as soon as it shakes off Putinism and its delusional imperialist goals. This was the recent verdict of Austria’s long-standing Defence Minister Werner Fasslabend at the Salzburg Paneuropa Forum in the Stiegl-Brauwelt. Instead, Russia today is shattered, its people are bleeding, and its leaders are trembling. The colossus is tottering. The sticking point: disillusioned, demotivated, and traumatised fighters in Putin’s colonial army are harbingers of an unstoppably approaching turning point. Exile proposals for Prigozhin and Putin. By Ludwig Bayer
The New York news portal Bloomberg reported on 07.07.2023: “Putin orders Chechen fighters and prisoners to the front”. The background is that the Kremlin no longer dares to undertake a large-scale military mobilisation because this would most likely lead to open rebellions in the cities. Since Prigozhin’s march towards Moscow, the Putinists fear that the foul mood, accompanied by small latent revolts, could lead to a major revolution against the regime.
The Putinists are becoming gripped by fear: fear of their own people, who no longer see any sense in this war – especially since Prigozhin announced that all the “reasons for war” proclaimed by Putin were a pack of lies. Bloomberg relies on intelligence sources: Chechens are supposed to close the gaps in the front line torn open by the Wagner withdrawal. However, it is not considered that Kadyrov could be “the next Prigozhin”. He is currently warming up.
On the same day (07.07.), CNN reported what Russians who fell into Ukrainian captivity are saying. They reveal weaknesses in the chain of command: “Commanders addicted to painkillers issue nonsensical orders that drive soldiers to their deaths.”
Russian Morale Continues to Sink
CNN features Russian prisoners of war held by the Ukrainian Third Assault Brigade. They describe harrowing scenes of trench warfare, chaos within their own ranks, and low and further declining morale. The Ukrainians have reportedly housed them in a makeshift prison. There, they have access to food, water, and cigarettes. CNN notes that many of the Russian prisoners of war are former convicts sent to the front by the Kremlin in exchange for reducing or annulling their sentences. At least they are now living better in Ukrainian custody than they did before in Russian dungeons. Now they can smoke Western cigarettes and reflect on the “greatest leader of all time” and the grim fate of their homeland.
With Rifles Against Ukrainian Tanks
No provisions. No water. Nothing! On 08.07.2023, the Twitter channel Wartranslated reported: “Russian soldiers refuse to fight. Because they are expected to fight Ukrainian tanks equipped only with rifles and are poorly supplied, Russian soldiers are making their situation public. Videos repeatedly appear of Russian soldiers standing in small groups before the camera, drawing attention to the dire conditions in Russia’s armed forces. It is about a lack of training, incompetent commanders, as well as deficient equipment and missing payments.”
Videos Show Frustration at the Front
New film footage from the front depicts the frustration. In a video nearly three minutes long, bearing a logo of the Telegram news service (where it was apparently first distributed), the men say they were forcibly recruited in the southern Russian region of Altai Krai – near the Chinese border – and are currently directly at the war front in Ukraine. They say they were shelled at their position by Ukrainian tanks. They are now expected to face the tanks with rifles. But they are “not ready” for that. One soldier emphasises several times that he and his comrades could not and did not want to fight under the given conditions.
Threat of Refusal to Fight
The Putin troops feel the shortage at every turn. This begins with poor communication with the military leadership, which names units whose existence the soldiers and their families in Russia now doubt. The statement by a commander that they would be moved back to the “third defensive line” after a rearguard action was also obviously a lie: “We are here in row zero,” says a soldier in the video. More and more Russian military personnel are threatening to refuse to fight. The situation regarding provisions also looks miserable for the Russian soldiers. After they asked their commanders to provide them with water and food, they were insulted in return. “They say there is enough food and water in the forest at the front; in truth, there is nothing.” As for the care of the injured, it takes around seven hours for help to arrive, which has already resulted in some soldiers losing arms and legs, even though they would have kept their limbs with appropriately rapid treatment.
No Pay Disbursed for Months
The US newspaper Newsweek reports: “In a Russian video, soldiers from various regiments can be seen who have now been reduced to a single company. Of the initial 100+ soldiers, only 40 remain.” The survivors report that the care for the injured is catastrophic. Putin’s soldiers threaten to stop fighting because, in addition to the poor supplies, they have not received any pay for months, from which they previously had to partially buy their own ammunition.
Young Educated Russians Leave the Country
The alternative to Putinism is gaining attractiveness for young Russians: Russia could become a “second Canada” if it were to renounce delusion-driven wars of conquest. This was stated by the long-standing Austrian Defence Minister and President of the National Council Werner Fasslabend when he recently spoke before the Salzburg Paneuropa Forum. Verified reports establish beyond doubt: a large number of young Russians emigrate abroad every day. Many are well-educated. Their number will gradually rise into the millions. They will be missing from the Russian economy in the future (brain drain). Conclusion: The Putinists are damaging Russia on a scale comparable only to the Mongol invasion in the 13th century – Genghis Khan and his descendants – as well as the Stalinist and National Socialist devastations of the 20th century.
Putin’s Aggressors Pay a High Price in Blood
The aggressors themselves bear the blame for the mass deaths of soldiers of the Russian colonial army in their futile attempts to destroy Ukraine as ordered. A few figures make it clear. On the morning of 08.07.2023, the Ukrainian General Staff listed the appalling losses of the Putinist attackers since the February 2022 attack. According to this, the total losses of the Russian army in Ukraine amount to 233,440 soldiers. Up to a thousand “casualties” are added daily because invasion soldiers die on the battlefields or are so severely wounded that they remain permanently unfit for combat.
Meanwhile, Russian troops have lost more than 12,000 tanks and armoured vehicles. Added to this are gigantic quantities of other weapons. The image shows destroyed Russian military equipment on display in the centre of Kyiv. © European Union 2022 Dati Bendo
In terms of tanks plus other armoured vehicles (such as infantry fighting vehicles), Putin’s army has now lost more than 12,000, so that British military experts believe a historic turning point has just occurred in this sector: “Ukraine has more operational tanks than Russia”. The fact that Putin is now trying to reactivate museum tanks that are as old as he is (70 years) changes little in the overall picture. At most, it increases the resentment in the ranks of the Putinist colonial army. Growing demoralisation of his own fighters is increasingly becoming Putin’s main problem. The second biggest problem for the Putin troops is the increasingly extensive deliveries to Ukraine from 54 supporting states.
Kremlin Has Lost Much War Material
The result: The Kremlin lost a good 4,000 artillery systems and at least 10,000 multiple rocket launchers, including many anti-aircraft systems. 315 Russian military aircraft were shot down – and the announced American F-16 machines are not even in use on the Ukrainian side yet. Furthermore, the Ukrainians have destroyed 309 Russian helicopters, 3,670 drones, and nearly 1,300 cruise missiles, as well as a good 7,000 various vehicles and fuel tanks. The kill rate is rising – and the Putinist conquerors are approaching the point where they must comply with the request of 141 member states of the United Nations to leave Ukrainian territory. There were only seven ‘no’ votes in this ballot in the UN General Assembly on 24.02.2023.
There Will Be a Second Prigozhin
Putin has so far missed all his goals – with rare exceptions: Iran continues to undauntedly deliver so-called kamikaze drones by ship across the Caspian Sea; as far as the Persian vessels are river-worthy, they can sail up the Volga as far as Stalingrad. As is well known, this city is called Volgograd today. Every year, the millions of Russians who lost their lives eight decades ago are commemorated there. Cynics believe Putin wants to surpass the human destruction records of Stalin and Hitler. That he will not succeed in this is certain given the sinking morale of his troops. Soon there will be a second Prigozhin marching towards Moscow. If he topples the despot Putin from his tottering throne, reason might perhaps prevail in the Kremlin.
With the Withdrawal of the Russians, the War Is Over
It would be sensible to finally take the aforementioned UN resolution and the entire Charter of the United Nations seriously – and to understand the message of peace contained therein: With the withdrawal of the last Russian soldier from Ukraine, the war is automatically over. The peace treaty is already there, namely the UN Charter. Not only the Ukrainians would benefit from this, but also the Russians, who are realising more and more clearly that they can never win this immoral war of annihilation – no matter how many more young people are sacrificed for Putin’s delusions.
Since Putin considers treaties to be worthless scraps of paper, a ceasefire without a Russian troop withdrawal would make no sense. Even more misunderstood would be a cession of Ukrainian territories to Russia. People with behavioural disorders like Putin would conclude from this that it is ultimately worthwhile to invade a neighbouring country.
The thesis of Austrian Putin admirers is quirky: since Russia is “invincible”, the Ukrainians must accept Russian annexations. Since certainly no one wants to attack or occupy the territory of Russia as defined by international law, it is clear that it is exclusively about the enforcement of the UN Charter and the cited resolution of the General Assembly of the United Nations, i.e. about the journey home, the departure of the murderous Russian short-term visitors from the territory of Ukraine as defined by international law.
Observers believe Putin is successful in only one field: propaganda. But now the foul mood among the Russian troops shows that Kremlin propaganda is increasingly failing to attract any interest even in its own country. According to a report by TIME, the bosses of 17 administrative regions sympathised with the rebel Prigozhin, while 21 oblast heads stood on Putin’s side. This reveals deep cracks in the system of rule, as this concerns the leadership level in the largest country on earth by area. TIME refers to papers from the Russian Ministry of the Interior that were presumably leaked by employees of the domestic intelligence service FSB.
Attack Against Georgia as a Distraction?
The news magazine FOCUS pointed out on 09.07.2023 the possibility that Putin could now attack Georgia to distract from his disaster in Ukraine. Georgia does not belong to any alliance and is therefore defenceless. Neutrality is not a key to security, but – on the contrary – an invitation to aggressors to break the peace.
In such a case, it would certainly be expected that Putin would give the order to increase the strength of his colonial army through forced recruitment of young Ukrainians from the territories he occupies. That would cost the lives of numerous other Ukrainians. Walled in by his fantasy images, the despot might not even understand why the fighting power of his troops continues to plummet and soldiers defect to the other side. The ambitious dreams of a Stalin-like world power position for a Putin empire growing ever larger through conquests have, thank God, burst.
Putin rages. According to Lukashenko, he wants to have Prigozhin killed for mutiny. This end of the rebel’s life decided by the leader (Putin: “Treason is unpardonable”) is being postponed for good reasons. Death in instalments. The punishment takes place in stages. First, the Kremlin withdrew large parts of the Wagner chief’s financial resources as quickly as possible, closed the company Internet Research Agency known as a “troll factory”, and blocked online media close to Prigozhin such as Ria Fan, Politics Today, or Neva News – as the British newspaper Guardian reports.
Bundles of Cash and Gold Bars
Furthermore, Moscow is trying to damage the rebel’s reputation in order to reduce his following. For example, photos of the Wagner chief’s luxurious residence are circulating, which according to Russian media reports were taken on the day of the coup attempt. Bundles of cash in the millions as well as boxes full of gold bars were reportedly found. According to dpa, this is intended to tarnish the image of the “simple man of the people”; and it is at the same time a warning to others not to oppose Putin.
Prigozhin’s Mother and the Money in Switzerland
Prigozhin enjoyed Putin’s trust for many years and became very rich in his mafia system. According to the media platform Bellingcat, Prigozhin increased his fortune by three billion dollars from 2011 to 2019. This went to his head. Everything that is currently within reach for Putin’s henchmen in Russia is now being taken away from him. As head of the globally active Wagner mercenaries, however, he is internationally positioned and has considerable assets outside Russia; his mother has bunkered a lot of money in Switzerland, and the Swiss judiciary has confirmed to her that she is not liable for her son. Her wealth remains untouched. EU sanctions do not apply.
Prigozhin (son) protects African coup regimes, for example in Mali and the Central African Republic, with his extremely brutal mercenary force. In return, he receives mining concessions that yield profits year after year. Putin probably cannot take that away from him. If Prigozhin gets out of Europe in one piece, he could live unmolested with the hard core of his Wagner mercenaries in the Central African Republic. Admittedly: it is quite hot there, but after all, there is air conditioning and his mother can send him money from Switzerland for the electricity bill.
The alternative to Putinism is gaining attractiveness for young Russians: Russia could become a “second Canada” if it were to renounce delusion-driven wars of conquest. This was stated by the long-standing Austrian Defence Minister and President of the National Council Werner Fasslabend when he recently spoke before the Salzburg Paneuropa Forum in the Stiegl-Brauwelt. Verified reports establish beyond doubt: a large number of young Russians emigrate abroad every day. Many are well-educated. Their number will gradually rise into the millions. © Stefan Haböck
Leader’s orders have the force of law in Russia. Prigozhin is sentenced to death. But he still has a stay of execution, because Putin needs the Wagner mercenaries for his war. They have proven themselves as his best killing machine. On 10.07., news came – initially via French media, then confirmed by Putin’s spokesman – that after the Prigozhin revolt there was a meeting in the Kremlin attended by around 35 Wagner “officers”; they swore eternal loyalty to Putin.
Wagner Mercenaries Swear Loyalty to Putin
The purpose of the event is thus crystal clear: Putin wants to win over as many as possible of the mercenaries murdering in Ukraine, because as death-defying fighters they are difficult to replace. They are more useful to Putin than conscripted Russians who were pressed into the regular army against their will.
The drama takes its course: in the second act, Prigozhin is first politely asked to transfer his African mining contracts to Putin. If he refuses, he faces the usual defenestration (“an accident”), unless he manages to get to Africa quickly enough by private jet or – disguised with a wig – in a fishing boat. Putin, the aggrieved, adheres to the sentence by Goebbels: “Revenge is a dish best served cold”.
Wagner Troops Are in Action in Africa
According to The Kyiv Independent, there was even a direct conversation between Yevgeny Prigozhin and Vladimir Putin after the coup attempt – a kind of war criminal conference. Further information was provided by the French Libération. Prigozhin is also said to have spoken with the head of the National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, as well as the head of the foreign intelligence service, Sergey Naryshkin, shortly after the coup attempt. In context, this can only mean that the Kremlin needs Prigozhin’s signature to get hold of his assets abroad and, if possible, also to place Wagner mercenaries in Africa under Moscow’s command. Since Prigozhin needs the dishonestly acquired money hidden abroad for his own survival, he will hardly give it away to his mafia colleague Putin.
Putin and His Wallet
The Putin family hoards far more assets abroad than Prigozhin. These are no trivial offences, because there are causal links between the infinite wealth of the mafia leaders and the poverty of the common people in Russia. Vladimir Putin apparently even owns real estate in Austria. His daughters and close family friends take care of it. Vladimir Putin is one of the richest people in the world.
When the “Panama Papers” revealed that two billion dollars in this Latin American tax haven alone can be attributed to Putin, a poor cellist from St. Petersburg, who allegedly owns all this, moved into the spotlight. He has the nickname “Putin’s wallet”. His name is Sergei Roldugin – a childhood friend of the current tyrant in the Kremlin.
This almost penniless musician manages parts of Putin’s private billions. Alongside Panama, Switzerland again plays its usual role. The Zurich public prosecutor’s office wanted to know whether four Swiss bank employees were acting legally when they opened and managed accounts for the cellist, who is obviously only Putin’s trustee. (Further details can be found in the article “Four Bankers on Trial: Did Putin’s Millions Reach Switzerland via a Strawman?” (Die Presse, 08.03.2023.)
Putin Has Severely Damaged Russia
A man who knows his way around such Russian-Swiss financial swamps is the economist Alfred R. Koch, who served as Deputy Prime Minister in the Moscow government under Boris Yeltsin. His father’s ancestors come from Germany (where he now lives), his mother is Russian. Koch gives a devastating assessment of Putinism: “Nothing new has happened lately. Except that the Russian invaders have come to a foreign country and are now clinging to something that does not belong to them. And they want to seize even more.”
A Victory for Russia Is Excluded
A victory for the Russian army is absolutely excluded. Koch: “There is no crime they have not already committed. They have spent a lot of money and killed hundreds of thousands of their own people and others. They have destroyed the future of their country and the reputation of their people. And what have they achieved in return? Nothing. Nothing but the hatred and contempt of humanity.”
By Saloon Carriage into Exile in China?
If Putin were to resign his office with a final breath of decency, he could have himself driven into exile in a saloon carriage of the Trans-Siberian Railway. To escape the court in The Hague, his only remaining choice – seeking refuge with his kindred spirits – would be between Xi Jinping’s China or Kim Jong Un’s North Korea.
Featured image: In its defensive struggle against the Russian attack of annihilation, Ukraine is supported by 54 states. The biggest problem for Putin’s troops is the extremely poor supply situation of his soldiery, which has an absolutely demoralising effect on them. © NATO
