Objective Achieved?
Vladimir Putin has once again proven that tanks are a powerful PR instrument. In passing, he has also made a small contribution to the division of Europe. By Rainhard Kloucek
For weeks, there was speculation about what the Russian President intended to achieve with his gigantic troop build-up on the border with Ukraine, both on Russian territory and in Belarusian territory, as well as in the Black Sea. Did he actually intend to continue his invasion of the western neighbouring country, which began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent occupation of areas in eastern Ukraine? Even if it would have been difficult to conquer and then hold the entire Ukraine with 150,000 soldiers and their equipment, a definitive annexation of eastern Ukraine (perhaps even with an expansion of the already occupied territories) would certainly have been possible. By the time the so-called West reacted, facts would have been created, and they would have reconvened in some format for peace talks.
In any case, the synchronised Duma has now given Putin the mandate to incorporate the occupied territories in eastern Ukraine into the Russian Federation. With the military threat in the background (even if some troop units are now allegedly withdrawing), such an operation is certainly easier than by any other means.
It is now almost impossible to deny that in the political world of the Russian leadership, the Cold War is still ongoing. In the West, it was believed to have ended at the latest with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yet Putin has clearly stated that for him, the demise of the Soviet Union represents the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. He has also said that he would restore the Soviet Union if he could. Democracy or the rule of law play at most the role of an enemy image in his political thinking.
Moscow’s Political Model
From this perspective, it is also logical that a Ukraine developing democratically, under the rule of law, and with a market economy represents a nightmare scenario for Moscow. A ‘brotherly people’ following the European model and not Moscow’s dictatorial political model would be clear proof that dictatorship is not the only correct political model for these brotherly peoples. The destabilisation of Ukraine – provided it cannot be brought fully under Moscow’s control – thus remains a goal of Russian policy.
Economically, the sabre-rattling has harmed Ukraine and continues to do so. The de facto occupation of the Sea of Azov cuts off the port of Mariupol from trade markets outside the country.
However, Putin has achieved another important goal, which is linked to his Soviet reminiscence. Statements, for example, by former US President Obama, that Russia is a subordinate power because it is economically anything but a great power, challenged the self-perception of the Russian leadership. The Kremlin still sees Russia as a great power, a world power. With the intervention in Syria, Putin already bombed the country back onto the stage of world politics. Mercenary groups are now continuing this policy in Africa.
For weeks now, Putin, with his policy against Ukraine, has dominated the headlines of almost all major media outlets. And this is practically worldwide. No PR strategist could have invented a spin that would have achieved this. Tanks as a PR instrument.
A World Power Once More
Russia is being taken seriously again. The USA is suddenly negotiating with Moscow on an equal footing again. As in the days of the Cold War, in the days of spheres of influence in Europe, the two superpowers are talking to each other – without taking Europeans into account.
In passing, Putin also showed Europe up. They all sat at his long table. The new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as well as French President Emmanuel Macron, who not only has elections approaching but, as President of the only nuclear power in the EU, is convinced that France is destined to lead Europe. Boris Johnson from London could not be absent; after all, outside the EU, he has to prove that Great Britain is still a world power. A distraction from domestic political scandals can never hurt. Even Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban was able to convince his fans at his election campaign launch speech that a successful peace mission had led him to Moscow, and thus he could prove that Hungary is a global political power.
Only one was missing: the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, Josep Borrell. This man is fundamentally miscast for this position, solely due to the policy he pursued towards Kosovo in the former Spanish government. But he was placed there by the governments of the EU countries and the European Parliament.
How Europe is Shown Up
One of his first foreign policy activities led him to Moscow. There, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov informed him, on camera during the joint closing press conference, about the expulsion of several European diplomats, thereby exposing him as a political dilettante. However, blaming Borrell alone for this mistake would be wrong. For the High Representative is only allowed to board a plane for such a delicate foreign policy trip if the 27 ‘sovereign’ foreign ministers of the EU states approve it. Putin probably drew his conclusions from this even then.
The hope that the EU (or its member states) will now draw the right conclusions from recent events dies last, but there is little evidence to support it.
The now repeatedly raised demand to return to the Minsk process proves the opposite. This agreement was concluded at the time to end hostilities; for seven years, it has led to nothing because it is inherently contradictory, it fragments the EU (thus weakening it), weakens Ukraine, and therefore shows no path for Russia to return to the foundations of international treaties. It is about as sensible as the proposal that Ukraine should declare neutrality. Only enemies want to push a country into neutrality, just as the USSR did with Austria at the time and wanted to do with a united Germany.
