There Can Be Only One

Is Viktor Orbán deliberately provoking his expulsion from the EPP? A commentary by Rainhard Kloucek

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán can count on significant support in his home country. This is not only due to a lack of opposition, but also to the strength of his policies, which deeply align with the prevailing Hungarian sentiment. 100 years after Trianon (Peace Treaty with Hungary, after the First World War, editor’s note), the effect is further bolstered by historical comparisons. For even then, the rest of the world was against Hungary, depriving the country of two-thirds of its historical size.

Thus, Viktor Orbán likes to portray himself today as the true protector of Hungarian identity. Hungarians, in turn, see themselves as the sole saviours of the Christian West, because they withstand the onslaught of Muslim migrants. In this role as protector, the EU Commission and its President are frequently attacked. While there are certainly many reasons to criticise Juncker and his Vice-President Timmermans, government campaigns against a fundamental EU institution, to which one belongs and whose structural funds one would by no means want to miss, introduce a new quality to the political debate. Viktor Orbán is certainly not stupid. So the question is surely permitted: what does he want to distract from? Or: what does he want to achieve with this?

What he certainly wants to achieve is to keep his popularity high in Hungary and among his fans outside the country. To do this, he needs to stay in the conversation. Provocation is a good stylistic device for this. However, he also achieves that his party family, the EPP, has to deal with him. This can become unpleasant during an election campaign, because at some point, one can no longer get through with the actual issues, but must constantly deal with a rather small country in the middle of Europe, on which one can often no longer rely at all. Consider the golden visas for wealthy Russians (including intelligence services), the influence peddling for China, or the friendly relations with Erdoğan. This is not how strategic European policy can be made.

And so the question is whether the EPP will simply draw a line under it and expel Orbán. Or, whether Orbán is so clever that he is deliberately provoking this expulsion. After all, it would fit his strategy: the others only want to harm Hungary.

Even if his Fidesz party has a two-thirds majority in Hungary, it is only a mid-table player within the EPP. Out of the EPP, however, Orbán would be a sought-after partner for all so-called right-wing populists. He would suddenly be a truly strong leader at the European level, moreover in an environment that has already considered him one of their own for some time. What a triumph that could be 100 years after Trianon.

c Featured image: European Union 2017 Etienne Ansotte