Iran under Siege
Following the United States’ withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran, more and more media outlets are speculating about the possibility of regime change in Tehran. The demonstrations of recent days are being interpreted as a sign that the “strongest sanctions ever” are having the effect of forcing Iran to the negotiating table, or potentially bringing down the government. North Korea is often cited as an example where this supposedly worked. A commentary by Karl von Habsburg.
This perspective, however, completely ignores the background of the actors involved. In the case of North Korea, it was about the legitimisation of the state; in the case of Iran, this is irrelevant. Direct negotiations with President Trump would even render Ayatollah Khamenei incredible. Khamenei will soon celebrate his 30th anniversary as the highest authority in the state, and he certainly does not want to leave a legacy of having negotiated with the United States from a position of weakness.
During the negotiations that led to the 2015 nuclear deal, Ayatollah Khamenei had always warned against the USA. President Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement is for him merely the final proof of the West’s perfidy, and that he was right. Khamenei’s anti-Americanism is a core component of his political programme, and a substantial part of his rhetoric deals with the West’s desire to overthrow the Islamic Republic and colonise Iran. According to him, the West is not just interested in a change of principles, but beyond that, in regime change. This can only be countered by an “axis of resistance”, which, alongside Iran’s allies in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, would also include Venezuela.
“From the first day, I have said repeatedly: never trust America! I do not trust those three countries either!” By this, Khamenei meant England, France, and Germany. When a group of reformers led by the former Mayor of Tehran, Gholamhossein Karbaschi, called on the country’s political leadership to negotiate with the Americans, it immediately led to a rallying of support for the Ayatollah by Iran’s still-dominant hardliners. Opponents of negotiations with Trump also include prominent figures such as former President Khatami, or one of the former negotiators of the Iran deal, Hossein Mousavian.
Thus, Iran must prepare itself for a new policy of blockade by the West. In Iran, one already hears much about the transition to a “resistance economy” – meaning an increase in the domestic production of essential goods and a reduction in imports. It is a situation that Iran knows only too well from the years of Western blockade policy, and one to which it can easily adapt once again.
Khamenei is now 79 years old and not in the best of health. He is already thinking about his legacy and his succession in office. However, he will certainly continue to play a decisive role in the coming months, as he determines the principles of Iranian policy and can be certain of the support of the Revolutionary Guards, the strongest armed force in the country. And he will not engage in an operetta á la “Trump versus Kim Jong-un”. Ayatollah Khamenei wants to leave a lasting legacy, and yielding to the pressure of Donald Trump is certainly not part of it. There will be no direct negotiations between Khamenei and Trump.
The article originally appeared on the website of Karl von Habsburg.
