A Christmas Miracle in the Middle East?

It is widely anticipated that the war in Syria is slowly drawing to a close. At least in the south of the country, at least in the area controlled by the Damascus government. The country’s forces are simply exhausted. Furthermore, an axis of regional powers has emerged in the wider vicinity, willing to take responsibility and bring the war to an end.

However, these regional powers – Russia, Iran, and Turkey – are not the forces that initiated the conflict. The objective of removing the dictator Assad has, at least temporarily, become improbable. The aspiration to transform Syria into a functioning democracy is currently voiced only by unrealistic dreamers.

Thus, one slowly begins to adjust to the post-war era, a time that will still be defined by Assad. Corruption is already intensifying its grip. For instance, it is assumed that the highly respected Syrian Director-General for Museums and Archaeology, Professor Maamoun Abdulkarim, was dismissed from his position just a few weeks ago and forced to leave the country because he refused to consent to an illegal redistribution of land around the country’s most important cultural sites.

This brings us to the time when Assad will be forced to settle the debts incurred during the war. Debts to Russia will likely be settled by enabling an increased presence in the Mediterranean. The port of Tartus and the Latakia airbase are more than sufficient payment.

But how will the debts be paid to the group that bore a significant portion of the infantry burden? We are speaking here of the Shiite Hezbollah militia, originally based in Lebanon, but deployed in Syria with Iranian support. It is assumed that Hezbollah might be compensated with an autonomous region in southern Syria. After all, their ambition has always been to possess a self-governing territory.

However, it is difficult to imagine that Israel will tolerate an Iranian-backed autonomous region in its immediate neighbourhood. All troop movements within Israel indicate that there will be a pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and possibly also in Syria. And this strike would, of course, have to occur before Hezbollah constitutes itself autonomously, that is, before the war in Syria ends.

Again and again, I hope that the conclusion drawn from this analysis is incorrect, meaning another war in the Middle East will be averted. Unfortunately, the signs are not good. Or can we still hope for a Christmas miracle?

The article originally appeared on the website of Karl von Habsburg.