Give Command to the Poles

Is Europe, the EU, prepared for the possibility that the next US President could leave NATO? What would be the consequences? By Rainhard Kloucek

So, Donald Trump has won the presidential election in the USA. At the end of January 2025, he will again be sworn in as President of the world’s strongest military power. His fans on all continents consider this good, his opponents consider it bad. The polarisation in the US presidential elections was massive. But in Europe, too, we are confronted with increasing polarisation. This is dangerous for the liberal, democratic, constitutional order, because polarisation gives populists and extremists the opportunity to score points with their sham solutions.

But the situation is serious. We do not know what Donald Trump will actually do. We do not even know whether his unpredictability is strategy or simply an expression of his problematic personality.

Who will take command of NATO?

But let us speculate (and we must, because Europe must be prepared for such an eventuality) that Donald Trump goes straight to the White House after being sworn in and signs a decree for the USA to withdraw from NATO. Of course, he cannot decide such a withdrawal alone, but the NATO commander in Europe, an American, would probably be relieved of his post.

Who would succeed him, and how quickly could that happen before such a lack of leadership could motivate the Russian tyrant to a new adventure?

Even at the turn of the millennium, a German would probably have been seen at the head of NATO in Europe. But in the meantime, Germany has so mismanaged its affairs (especially politically, but also economically) that such a choice is probably no longer an option. France, in any case, sees itself as the leading power in Europe, and with a nuclear bomb to boot. However, this ambition, which is not supported by strength, probably stands in the way of the French. If one compares the support for Ukraine with other EU countries, France is clearly lagging behind. Moreover, they are geographically even further away from the current threat than Germany.

Only Poland remains as a solution. The Poles know how great the Russian danger is; they have been investing in their defence for years and continue to expand it.

Of course, we don’t know what Trump will actually do. But Europe must be prepared.

Feature image: View of Warsaw. copyright: European Union 2021 Janek Skarzynski