Kyiv, one week after the presidential election

Will the incumbent Petro Poroshenko prevail in the run-off, or will it be the challenger Volodymyr Zelensky? And what does this mean for the parliamentary elections in October? An impression from the Ukrainian capital, by Rainhard Kloucek.

In 1996, as the professor at Borys Grinchenko Kyiv University recounts during the introduction to the guest speaker from Austria, he visited Austria for the first time. He follows up with a question: who was already born then? “The Ukrainian Constitution,” a student calls out into the hall. The answer is correct, but also quick-witted. After all, the professor should know that second-year students had not yet been born in 1996.

The aim of the lecture is to tell the students something about Paneuropa. The origins of the organisation, its goals, and of course the question of how we see the situation in Ukraine—the whole situation with the war unleashed by Russia, the annexation of Crimea, and naturally a possible EU rapprochement for the country. But it is not yet a week since the first round of the presidential election. And the first question after the lecture is immediately which of the two candidates in the final round is the better one. The incumbent President Petro Poroshenko or the challenger Volodymyr Zelensky? Naturally, the speaker from Austria cannot answer that question. Regarding Poroshenko, he can only make remarks about his previous policies. That he promised more than he could deliver. But not all of these broken promises were unkept due to his policies. He cannot end the war alone. However, he could have sold his company—as promised. This point, incidentally, comes up repeatedly in several conversations. It is a question of credibility.

Who is the challenger?

But what is the speaker from Austria supposed to say about Volodymyr Zelensky? It is known that he is an actor, a comedian. But will he be a good politician, a good president? After the official part of the event at the university, a student (who was also at the Paneuropa conference in Vienna) mentions that her family and Zelensky are neighbours. They both come from the same town, and she knows him from there. Yes, she voted for him, and she will vote for him in the second round too. A few other students, still interested in a conversation with the Paneuropa representative from Austria, support her. From their perspective, Zelensky is significantly better than Poroshenko.

Now, of course, comes the Austrian’s objection: that little is known about what Zelensky—hitherto known only as an actor—will actually do, what his policies are, or whether he even has a concrete idea of politics. Surely no one can assume that he believes he can exercise his presidential position in the same way he played the president in a film! No, the students—all around 20 years old—are not that naive.

However, they are all old enough to have experienced the situation in the country five years ago. The promises of the current president, and the reality. Yes, reforms were made, but only tentatively, only in some areas, and Poroshenko has lost his credibility. Therefore, someone else should now be given the chance. But what if he fails too? Then in five years, someone else will simply be elected!

Trust in democracy

This statement comes with a calm certainty from the students, but also from older interlocutors. It sounds good and optimistic. For it clearly shows: people have trust in democratic elections. It is not predetermined—as it is in Moscow—who the next president will be. If he fails, he will likely be gone again in five years. The Austrian is amazed. In this country, it is taken for granted that an incumbent president will be re-elected if they stand again.

But not everyone is so convinced by Zelensky, and some speak up for Poroshenko. The linguist (who works at another university) does not have a good word to say about Zelensky. An actor, of whom no one knows what he really wants. Is he playing a role, is he serious about what he says, how does he want to implement it, who is behind him, is he a puppet of the oligarch who owns the channel he works for, is he even Moscow’s man? There are many questions she raises, and she is not the only one. No, Poroshenko is not perfect either; he has made many mistakes, and the fact that his company became wealthier during his first five years as president does not speak in his favour. But by now, his policies are known. It is known that he stands for the country’s clear Western orientation. That is important to Ukrainians.

Most interlocutors in Kyiv (who are, of course, not a representative cross-section of voters) assume that Zelensky will probably win. Ukraine experts in Austria had assumed before the election that Poroshenko, provided he made it to the second round, would also win it.

But to do that, he must win significantly more additional voters than his challenger. The latter had 30 per cent in the first round, the incumbent president only 16. Furthermore, as the professor recounts, Poroshenko was polarising in the election campaign. “Me or Putin” was one of his slogans, as if everyone else were puppets of Moscow. To reach 50 per cent, he must win more than two-thirds of the voters of those candidates who did not make it to the second round. For Zelensky, half is enough. What speaks for Poroshenko is the power of his bloc in parliament. For there are parliamentary elections in October; the multitude of candidates for the presidency is also linked to these upcoming parliamentary elections. People are positioning themselves for coalitions, for positions.

Is everyone really corrupt?

But Zelensky is also making his mistakes. Recently, he stated that practically everyone in the administration is corrupt and must therefore be replaced. A tough statement. Corruption is indisputably a problem. But to say that everyone is corrupt misses the reality. Has Zelensky thus alienated a voter potential that should not be neglected? It is not just about the votes of the administration employees. It is also about their families; ultimately, it is also about the very administration that must ensure the election can proceed correctly.

Whoever wins the presidential elections on Catholic Easter Sunday, there are parliamentary elections in the autumn. The President of Ukraine—this too is often forgotten in EU member states—is not an absolute ruler like the President of Russia. His powers have been significantly curtailed. He can determine the orientation of foreign policy, but in most other cases, he is dependent on the majority in parliament. Just as it should be in a democracy.