The Next Move? An Attempt at a Post-Election Forecast.
A game of chess doesn’t just depend on the next move; what’s crucial is usually the pre-planned, subsequent manoeuvre. A commentary by Lukas Leitner.
A brief look back at the political spring: Christian Kern could not win the duel for better personal approval ratings. From spring onwards, the ÖVP’s election campaign (communication-strategically correct) focused exclusively on their new Chancellor candidate Sebastian Kurz and ignored any emerging substantive discussion – a communicative ‘wellness strategy’ was born. And Heinz-Christian Strache (initially) went into hiding. He entrenched himself behind holiday and private matters, avoiding substantive debate until just a few days before the election on 15th October. The themes of the election campaign were soon unilaterally dictated by the ÖVP strategists through sequential publications of their manifesto, while the SPÖ, in the chaos of an inferior campaign team, was substantively overwhelmed.
The outcome was inevitable: the telegenic and fresh challenger won, the SPÖ stagnated or, surprisingly, made slight gains despite the campaign chaos, and the FPÖ’s actually disastrous Vienna state result nullified their good gains in the other federal states. Digital platforms also created so-called ‘echo chambers’ or ‘bubbles’ for many target groups: everyone received news that reinforced their own opinions. Communicatively, the election for the Austrian National Council became a three-way contest for the position of Federal Chancellor, with the smaller parties falling by the wayside.
Checkmate or Responsibility: Sebastian Kurz seeking partners, government formation seems far from settled.
Credit: orf.at
A Coalition with a Genetic Defect?
And now? The ÖVP and FPÖ, as the two election winners, would be well advised to approach each other without prejudice. Every game of chess thrives on surprise – a swift government formation would automatically bring advantages for all involved: the sovereign rightly expects rapid capacity for action. The FPÖ would do well to move past the (from the FPÖ’s perspective, understandable) wounds inflicted by the ÖVP’s treatment of the FPÖ in recent years and openly approach the potential partner. Both ‘camps’ could learn a great deal from successful brands: one should only communicate when one has a clear message. Relevance is the magic word that automatically legitimises communication and advertising. The time for vague hints ended on election night.
The fact is: if Sebastian Kurz now succeeds in swiftly forming a viable government coalition with his programme, and if he and his government partner manage to deliver the promised reforms over the next five years – especially the relief for the working population through tax reform and parallel relief for the self-employed – then his next electoral success in 2022 will be assured. And the FPÖ could also receive its fair share of a potential election victory. Bernhard Görg, a former ‘junior partner’ of the SPÖ in Vienna, once said: ‘Every grand coalition has a genetic defect, namely that the junior partner has nothing else in mind but to dethrone the number one.’ It is this defect that the FPÖ must overcome.
Checkmate or Responsibility?
However, if old party patterns prevail, it is questionable whether the SPÖ and FPÖ will begrudge the radiant election winner Kurz his success – and not rather do everything to keep him out of the future government at all costs. If Sebastian Kurz states on Sunday evening, ‘I accept the responsibility with great humility‘, it remains to be seen whether the FPÖ and SPÖ will actually entrust him with this responsibility – or jointly attempt a premature checkmate for Sebastian Kurz in a strategically planned ‘prevention coalition’. ‘Time for something new’ was a central slogan of Sebastian Kurz, but this is far from settled.
Mag. Lukas Leitner is a partner at Cayenne Marketingagentur GmbH (Vienna).
Paneuropa post-election analysis.
Part 1: ‘The Next Move?’ by Lukas Leitner.
Part 2: “Left-wing deficits as fathers of the right-wing shift” by Wilhelm Ortmayr.
https://pan.thatscommunication.de/linke-defizite-als-vaeter-des-rechtsrucks/
Part 3: ‘Five Winners, One Loser’ by Patrick Minar
